Expand your use and understanding of linear regression models in developing sales, energy, and demand forecasts to support the financial and long-term planning processes. This course builds the basics of linear regression and exponential smoothing. At the end of this 2.5-day course, attendees will gain a solid understanding of how to estimate strong sales, customer, and demand forecast models. This includes finding the right forecast drivers, evaluating model results and model performance, and addressing outliers and serial correlation with integrated auto-regressive terms.

The course will focus on long-term forecasting issues including how to incorporate end-use structure into your forecast model, capture efficiency program impacts and new technologies that are reshaping system load now and in the future.

Hands-on exercises using MetrixND and MetrixLT will include:

• Weather normalizing sales, evaluating customer usage trends, identifying and incorporating temperature trends
• Developing generalized and Statistically Adjusted End-Use (SAE) customer class sales forecast models
• Evaluating and addressing linear regression modeling issues
• Estimating peak demand forecast and addressing load impacts of behind-the-meter solar, electric vehicle adoption, and electrification programs